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Future of the Kazakh Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2019

Published: Dec-2014 | Format: PDF | Strategic Defence Intelligence | Number of pages: 119 | Code: MRS - 1774

The Future of the Kazakh Defense Industry Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2019, published by Strategic Defense Intelligence, provides readers with a detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

Key Findings

  • Over the historic period, Kazakh defense expenditure registered a growth rate of 16.17%, increasing  from US$1.1 billion in 2010 to US$2.1 billion in 2014
  • Kazakhstan's military expenditure, valued at US$2.1 billion in 2015, is expected to decrease to US$3.7 billion by 2019, registering a CAGR of 14.35% over the forecast period
  • Kazakhstan's military expenditure will be driven by the procurement of better defense systems and efforts to combat terrorist threats
  • The Defense Ministry is expected to procure multi mission and rescue helicopters, transport aircraft and air defense radars


Synopsis

This report offers detailed analysis of Kazakhstan's defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following: 

  • Kazakh defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Kazakh defense industry during 2015-2019, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country's expenditure and modernization patterns 
  • Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to the army, navy, and air force. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
  • Porter's Five Force analysis of the Kazakh defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitutions, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry 
  • Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country's imports and exports over the last five years 
  • Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the coming 10 years
  • Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Kazakh defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis


Reasons To Buy

  • This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Kazakh defense industry market trends for the coming five years
  • The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period
  • Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
  • A deep qualitative analysis of the Kazakh defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter's Five Forces Analysis,  Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts

Table of Contents

1 Introduction

1.1. What is this Report About?
1.2. Definitions
1.3. Summary Methodology
1.4. SDI Terrorism Index
1.5. About Strategic Defence Intelligence

2 Executive Summary

3 Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities

3.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
3.1.1. Kazakh annual defense expenditure to reach US$3.7 billion by 2019
3.1.2. Modernization and acquisition of military equipment and counter-terrorism to drive Kazakhstan’s defense expenditure
3.1.3. The country’s defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to be 0.92% on average over the forecast period
3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.2.1. Share of capital expenditure to increase steadily over the forecast period
3.2.2. Capital expenditure budget expected to increase during the forecast period
3.2.3. Kazakh revenue expenditure expected to record a CAGR of 8.82% during the forecast period
3.2.4. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase during the forecast period
3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.3.1. Homeland security budget projected to increase at a CAGR of 10.37% during the forecast period
3.3.2. Human trafficking, drug smuggling, and cybercrime form the major components of homeland security expenditure
3.3.3. Kazakhstan is at a low risk from external and internal threats
3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.4.1. Kazakh defense expenditure expected to increase at a CAGR of 14.35% over the forecast period
3.4.2. Kazakhstan’s military expenditure is low when compared to countries with the largest defense expenditure
3.4.3. Kazakhstan allocates a low percentage of GDP to defense
3.4.4. Kazakhstan has a moderate per-capita defense expenditure
3.4.5. Kazakhstan faces low risk of terrorist attack
3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
3.5.1. Helicopters
3.5.2. Air defense system
3.5.3. Military Transport Aircraft

4 Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
4.1. Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1. The current need to modernize its armed forces will drive defense imports
4.1.2. Russia was the leading supplier of arms to Kazakhstan during the historic period; a trend that is expected to carry on during the forecast period
4.1.3. Aircraft accounted for the majority of defense imports during 2009–2013
4.2. Export Market Dynamics
4.2.1. Kazakhstan does not export arms due to its under-developed domestic arms industry

5 Industry Dynamics
5.1. Five Forces Analysis
5.1.1. Bargaining power of the supplier: medium to high
5.1.2. Bargaining power of the buyer: low to medium
5.1.3. Barrier to entry: medium
5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: medium
5.1.5. Threat of substitution: low to medium

6 Market Entry Strategy
6.1. Market Regulation
6.1.1. Kazakhstan does not disclose any offset obligations imposed by the country
6.1.2. Foreign direct investment (FDI)in defense sector not disclosed by the government
6.2. Market Entry Route
6.2.1. Government-to-government agreements are the preferred market entry route for foreign OEMs
6.2.2. Joint venture and license manufacturing agreements provide an attractive market entry route
6.3. Key Challenges
6.3.1. Corruption and lack of transparency create roadblock for foreign companies
6.3.2. Domination of Russian companies poses a challenge to other foreign firms

7 Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
7.1.1. Foreign suppliers manufacture defense systems overseas and deliver to Kazakhstan
7.2. Key Companies
7.2.1. Airbus: overview
7.2.2. Airbus: products and services
7.2.3. Airbus: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.4. Airbus: alliances
7.2.5. Airbus: Recent Contract Wins
7.2.6. Russian Aircraft Corporation ""MiG”: Overview
7.2.7. Russian Aircraft Corporation ""MiG”: products and services
7.2.8. Russian Aircraft Corporation ""MiG”: Recent contract wins
7.2.9. Uralvagonzavod – overview
7.2.10. Uralvagonzavod – major products and services
7.2.11. Uralvagonzavod – Alliances
7.2.12. Sagem: overview
7.2.13. Sagem: products and services
7.2.14. Sagem: Alliances
7.2.15. Astrium: overview
7.2.16. Astrium: products and services
7.2.17. Astrium: Alliances
7.2.18. Thales: Overview
7.2.19. Thales: products and services
7.2.20. Thales: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.21. Thales: alliances
7.2.22. Thales: Recent Contract Wins

8 Business Environment and Country Risk

8.1. Demographics & Social Statistics
8.1.1. Total Rural Population
8.1.2. Total Urban Population
8.1.3. Number of households
8.2. Economic Performance
8.2.1. GDP Per Capita
8.2.2. GDP, Current Prices
8.2.3. Exports of goods and services (current US$ Bn)
8.2.4. Imports of goods and services (current US$ Bn)
8.2.5. Gross National disposable income (US$ Bn)
8.2.6. Manufacturing Output (US$ Bn)
8.2.7. Consumer Price Index
8.2.8. Wholesale Price Index
8.2.9. Local Currency Unit per US Dollars
8.2.10. Local Currency Unit per Euro
8.2.11. Market capitalization of listed companies (US$ Bn)
8.2.12. Market capitalization of listed companies (% of GDP)
8.2.13. Total Government cash surplus/deficit (KZT Bn)
8.2.14. Government cash surplus/deficit as % of GDP (KZT)
8.2.15. Goods exports as a % of GDP
8.2.16. Goods imports as a % of GDP
8.2.17. Goods balance as a % of GDP
8.2.18. Services imports as a % of GDP
8.2.19. Service exports as a % of GDP
8.2.20. Services balance as a % of GDP
8.2.21. Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$ Bn)
8.2.22. Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP
8.2.23. International reserves, including gold
8.2.24. External Debt as % of GDP
8.3. Energy and Utilities
8.3.1. Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation
8.3.2. Hydroelectricity Net Generation
8.3.3. Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity
8.3.4. Electricity Exports
8.3.5. Electricity Imports
8.3.6. Proved Natural Gas Reserves
8.3.7. Petroleum Consumption
8.3.8. Crude Oil Proved Reserves
8.4. Infrastructure
8.4.1. Roads, total network (km)
8.4.2. Rail lines (total route-km)
8.4.3. Air Transport, freight (million ton-km)
8.5. Minerals
8.5.1. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output
8.6. Technology
8.6.1. Research and Development expenditure (Local Currency Thousands)
8.7. Telecommunication
8.7.1. Telephone Lines
8.7.2. Telephone Lines Penetration Rate

9 Appendix
9.1. About SDI
9.2. Disclaimer

List of Tables

Table 1: Kazakh Defense Expenditure (US$ billions), 2010–2014
Table 2: Kazakh Defense Expenditure, 2015–2019
Table 3: Kazakh Defense Expenditure (KZT billion), 2010–2014
Table 4: Kazakh Defense Expenditure (KZT billion), 2015–2019
Table 5: Kazakh GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth (US$), 2010–2014
Table 6: Kazakh GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth (US$), 2015–2019
Table 7: Kazakh GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth (in KZT), 2010–2014
Table 8: Kazakh GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth (KZT), 2015–2019
Table 9: Kazakh Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2010–2014
Table 10: Kazakh Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2015–2019
Table 11: Kazakh Capital Budget Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2010–2014
Table 12: Kazakh Capital Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2015–2019
Table 13: Kazakh Capital Budget Expenditure (KZT Billion), 2010–2014
Table 14: Kazakh Capital Budget Allocation (KZT billion), 2015–2019
Table 15: Kazakh Revenue Expenditure (US$ billion), 2010–2014
Table 16: Kazakh Revenue Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2015–2019
Table 17: Kazakh Revenue Budget Expenditure (KZT Billion), 2010–2014
Table 18: Kazakh Revenue Budget Allocation (KZT billion), 2015–2019
Table 19: Kazakh Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2010–2014
Table 20: Kazakh Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2015–2019
Table 21: Kazakh Per Capita Defense Expenditure (KZT), 2010–2014
Table 22: Kazakh Per Capita Defense Expenditure (KZT), 2015–2019
Table 23: Kazakh Homeland Security Budget (US$ bn), 2010–2014
Table 24: Kazakh Homeland Security Budget (US$ bn), 2015–2019
Table 25: Kazakh Homeland Security Budget (KZT bn), 2010–2014
Table 26: Kazakh Homeland Security Budget (KZT bn), 2015–2019
Table 27: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2010–2014 vs. 2015–2019
Table 28: SDI Terrorism Index
Table 29: Airbus – Product Focus
Table 30: Airbus: Alliances
Table 31: Airbus: Recent Contract Wins
Table 32: Russian Aircraft Corporation ""MiG”– Product Focus
Table 33: Russian Aircraft Corporation ""MiG” – Recent Contract Wins
Table 34: Uralvagonzavod – Major Products & Services
Table 35: Uralvagonzavod – Alliances
Table 36: Sagem– product focus
Table 37: Sagem: Alliances
Table 38: Astrium– Product Focus
Table 39: Astrium – Alliances
Table 40: Thales – Product Focus
Table 41: Thales: Alliances
Table 42: Thales – Recent Contract Wins

List of Figures

Figure 1: Kazakh Defense Expenditure, 2010–2014
Figure 2: Kazakh Defense Expenditure, 2015–2019
Figure 3: Kazakh Defense Expenditure (KZT billion), 2010–2014
Figure 4: Kazakh Defense Expenditure (KZT billion), 2015–2019
Figure 5: Kazakh GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2010–2014
Figure 6: Kazakh GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2015–2019
Figure 7: Kazakh GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2010–2014
Figure 8: Kazakh GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2015–2019
Figure 9: Kazakh Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2010–2014
Figure 10: Kazakh Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2015–2019
Figure 11: Kazakh Capital Budget Expenditure (US$ billion),2010–2014
Figure 12: Kazakh Capital Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2015–2019
Figure 13: Kazakh Capital Budget Expenditure (KZT billion), 2010–2014
Figure 14: Kazakh Capital Budget Allocation (KZT billion), 2015–2019
Figure 15: Kazakh Revenue Expenditure (US$ billion), 2010–2014
Figure 16: KazakhRevenue BudgetAllocation(US$ billion), 2015–2019
Figure 17: Kazakh Revenue Budget Expenditure (KZT billion), 2010–2014
Figure 18: Kazakh Revenue Budget Allocation (KZT billion), 2015–2019
Figure 19: Kazakh Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2010–2014
Figure 20: Kazakh Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2015–2019
Figure 21: Kazakh Per Capita Defense Expenditure (KZT), 2010–2014
Figure 22: Kazakh Per Capita Defense Expenditure (KZT), 2015–2019
Figure 23: Kazakh Homeland Security Budget (US$ bn), 2010–2014
Figure 24: Kazakh Homeland Security Budget (US$ bn), 2015–2019
Figure 25: Kazakh Homeland Security Budget (KZT bn), 2010–2014
Figure 26: Kazakh Homeland Security Budget (KZT bn), 2015–2019
Figure 27: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, 2014
Figure 28: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2010–2014  vs. 2015–2019
Figure 29: Defense Expenditure of the World’s Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion),  2014 and 2019
Figure 30: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2014
Figure 31: Per-capita Defense Expenditure of Largest Military Spenders in the World (US$), 2014
Figure 32: SDI Terrorism Index, 2014
Figure 33: Kazakh Defense Import Trend(US$ million), 2009–2013 (TIV values)
Figure 34: Kazakh Defense Imports by Country (%), 2009–2013
Figure 35: Kazakh Defense Imports by Category (%), 2009–2013
Figure 36: Industry Dynamics Porter’s Five Forces Analysis
Figure 37: Kazakh Rural Population (In Millions), 2010–2019
Figure 38: Kazakh Urban Population (In Millions), 2010–2019
Figure 39: Kazakh Number of Households (In Millions), 2008–2017
Figure 40: Kazakh GDP Per Capita (US$), 2010–2019
Figure 41: Kazakh GDP, Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2010–2019
Figure 42: Kazakh Exports of Goods and Services (current US$ Bn), 2002–2011
Figure 43: Kazakh Imports of goods and services (current US$ Bn), 2002–2011
Figure 44: Kazakh Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Bn), 2002–2011
Figure 45: Kazakh Manufacturing Output (US$ Bn), 2003–2011
Figure 46: Kazakh Consumer Price Index, 2008–2017
Figure 47: Wholesale Price Index, 2002–2011
Figure 48: Local Currency per US$, 2009–2018
Figure 49: Local Currency per Euro, 2008–2017
Figure 50: Kazakh Market capitalization of listed companies (US$ Bn), 2003–2012
Figure 51: Kazakh Market capitalization of listed companies (% of GDP), 2002–2011
Figure 52: Kazakh Total Government cash surplus/deficit (KZT Bn), 2004–2011
Figure 53: Kazakh Government cash surplus/deficit as % of GDP (LCU), 2002–2011
Figure 54: Kazakh Goods exports as a % of GDP, 2002–2011
Figure 55: Kazakh Goods imports as a % of GDP, 2002–2011
Figure 56: Kazakh Goods balance as a % of GDP, 2001–2010
Figure 57: Kazakh Services Imports as a % of GDP, 2002–2011
Figure 58: Kazakh Service Exports as a % of GDP, 2001–2010
Figure 59: Kazakh Services Balance as a % of GDP, 2002–2011
Figure 60: Kazakh Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, current US$ Bn), 2002–2011
Figure 61: Kazakh Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP, 2002–2011
Figure 62: Kazakh International Reserves, Including Gold (US$ Billion), 2002–2011
Figure 63: Kazakh External Debt as % of GDP (%), 2001–2010
Figure 64: Kazakh Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2002–2011
Figure 65: Kazakh Hydroelectricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2002–2011
Figure 66: Kazakh Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Million Kilowatts),    2001–2010
Figure 67: Kazakh Electricity Exports (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2001–2010
Figure 68: Kazakh Electricity Imports (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2001–2010
Figure 69: Kazakh Proved Natural Gas Reserves (Trillion Cubic Feet), 2004–2013
Figure 70: Kazakh Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day), 2003–2012
Figure 71: Kazakh Crude Oil Proved Reserves (Billion Barrels), 2004–2013
Figure 72: Kazakh Roads, total network (km), 2003–2010
Figure 73: Kazakh Rail lines (total route-km), 2002–2011
Figure 74: Kazakh Air Transport, freight (million ton-km), 2002–2011
Figure 75: Kazakh Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ Billion), 2002–2011
Figure 76: Kazakh Research and Development expenditure (Local Currency Thousands), 2001–2009
Figure 77: Kazakh Telephone Lines (In Million), 2002–2011
Figure 78: Kazakh Telephone Lines Penetration Rate (Per 100 People), 2002–2011

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