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Future of the Swedish Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2019

Published: Nov-2014 | Format: PDF | Strategic Defence Intelligence | Number of pages: 147 | Code: MRS - 1759

The Future of the Swedish Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2019, published by Strategic Defense Intelligence, provides readers with a detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

Key Findings

  • Over the historic period, Swedish defense expenditure registered a growth rate of 4.50%, increasing  from US$5.6 billion in 2010 to US$6.7 billion in 2014
  • Sweden’s military expenditure, valued at US$7.0 billion in 2015, is expected to increase to US$8.3 billion by 2019, registering a CAGR of 4.17% over the forecast period
  • Sweden’s military expenditure will be driven by the threat from Russia, modernization initiatives and participation in peace keeping missions
  • The Defense Ministry is expected to procure fighters and multi-role aircraft, diesel electric submarines, aviation MRO and network security


Synopsis

This report offers detailed analysis of Sweden’s defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following: 

  • Swedish defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Swedish defense industry during 2015–2019, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns 
  • Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to the army, navy, and air force. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
  • Porter’s Five Force analysis of the Swedish defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitutions, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry 
  • Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years 
  • Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the coming 10 years
  • Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Swedish defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis


Reasons To Buy

  • This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Swedish defense industry market trends for the coming five years
  • The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period
  • Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
  • A deep qualitative analysis of the Swedish defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter’s Five Forces Analysis,  Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts

Table of Contents

1 Introduction

1.1. What is this Report About?
1.2. Definitions
1.3. Summary Methodology
1.4. SDI Terrorism Index
1.5. About Strategic Defense Intelligence

2 Executive Summary

3 Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities

3.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
3.1.1. Swedish defense expenditure expected to register a CAGR of 4.17% during the forecast period
3.1.2. Modernization initiatives, peacekeeping missions, and threat from Russia expected to fuel Swedish defense expenditure
3.1.3. Defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to decline during the forecast period
3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.2.1. Capital expenditure allocation expected to increase during the forecast period
3.2.1. Air Force accounts for a majority of the defense budget
3.2.2. Budget allocation for the air force the highest among all military divisions
3.2.3. The country’s expenditure on its Army to reach US$2.1 billion by 2019
3.2.4. Expenditure on Navy estimated to increase at a CAGR of 5.33% over the forecast period
3.2.5. Other expenses constitute a substantial amount of the total defense budget
3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.3.1. Swedish police budget expected to increase during the forecast period
3.3.2. Homeland security expenditure to be driven by Sweden’s efforts to counter organized crime
3.3.3. Threat from international terrorist organizations
3.3.4. Sweden falls under “Low risk” of terrorism category
3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.4.1. Swedish defense expenditure is expected to remain modest during the forecast period
3.4.2. The country’s defense budget is moderate compared to other leading spenders
3.4.3. Sweden allocates a lower share of GDP to defense compared to countries with significant global defense expenditure
3.4.4. Sweden faces negligible threat from foreign terrorist organizations
3.4.5. Sweden emerged as the twelfth-largest global arms exporter during 2009–2013
3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Drivers
3.5.1. Fighters and Multi-role aircraft
3.5.2. Diesel Electric Submarines
3.5.3. Aviation MRO
3.5.4. Network Security

4 Defense Procurement Market Dynamics

4.1. Import Market Dynamics
4.1.1. Defense imports registered a decline during 2009–2013
4.1.2. Sweden aims to diversify arms imports
4.1.3. Sensors accounted for the majority of defense imports
4.2. Export Market Dynamics
4.2.1. Swedish defense exports tend to be inclined towards Asian and Middle-Eastern countries
4.2.2. Sweden aims to enter non-European defense markets
4.2.3. Aircraft account for the majority of Swedish defense exports

5 Industry Dynamics
5.1. Five Forces Analysis
5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: low
5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: high
5.1.3. Barrier to entry: medium
5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: high
5.1.5. Threat of Substitution: high

6 Market Entry Strategy
6.1. Market Regulation
6.1.1. Swedish government encourages offsets in order to form defense partnerships with different countries
6.1.2. Swedish defense industry is open to foreign direct investment
6.2. Market Entry Route
6.2.1. Acquisition of a domestic defense company is preferred entry route
6.2.2. Foreign OEMs gain industry access through joint research and development programs
6.2.3. Foreign investors enter the market through direct sales
6.3. Key Challenges
6.3.1. Cancellation of projects due to low defense budget deters investors from entering the market
6.3.2. The absence of multipliers in the offset policy discourages foreign suppliers
6.3.3. Transformation from a conscript force to a professional volunteer force

7 Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
7.2. Key Public Sector Companies
7.2.1. SAAB – Overview
7.2.2. SAAB – Major Products and Services
7.2.3. SAAB – Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
7.2.4. SAAB – Alliances
7.2.5. SAAB – Recent Contract Wins
7.2.6. SAAB – Financial Analysis
7.3. Key Private Sector Companies
7.3.1. BAE Systems AB – Overview
7.3.2. BAE Systems AB – Major Products and Services
7.3.3. BAE Systems AB – Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
7.3.4. BAE Systems AB – Alliances
7.3.5. BAE Systems AB – Recent Contract Wins
7.3.6. Nammo AS – Overview
7.3.7. Nammo AS – Major Products and Services
7.3.8. Nammo AS – Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
7.3.9. Nammo AS – Alliances
7.3.10. CybAero – Overview
7.3.11. CybAero – Major Products and Services
7.3.12. CybAero – Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
7.3.13. CybAero – Alliances
7.3.14. CybAero – Recent Contract Wins
7.3.15. Dynasafe AB – Overview
7.3.16. Dynasafe AB – Major Products and Services
7.3.17. Dynasafe AB – Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
7.3.18. Dynasafe AB – Recent Contract Wins
7.3.19. Scanjack AB – Overview
7.3.20. Scanjack AB – Major Products and Services
7.3.21. Scanjack AB – Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
7.3.22. Scanjack AB – Recent Contract Wins
7.3.23. Åkers Krutbruk Protection AB – Overview
7.3.24. Åkers Krutbruk Protection AB – Major Products and Services
7.3.25. Åkers Krutbruk Protection AB – Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
7.3.26. Åkers Krutbruk Protection AB – Alliances
7.3.27. Åkers Krutbruk Protection AB – Recent Contract Wins
7.3.28. Logica – Overview
7.3.29. Logica – Major Products and Services
7.3.30. Logica – Alliances
7.3.31. Logica – Recent Contract Wins
7.3.32. Niscayah – Overview
7.3.33. Niscayah – Major Products and Services
7.3.34. Niscayah – Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
7.3.35. Niscayah – Alliances
7.3.36. Niscayah – Recent Contract Wins

8 Business Environment and Country Risk
8.1. Demographics & Social Statistics
8.1.1. Total Rural Population
8.1.2. Total Urban Population
8.1.3. Number of Households
8.2. Economic Performance
8.2.1. GDP Per Capita
8.2.2. GDP, Current Prices (US$ Billions)
8.2.3. Exports of goods and services, current prices (US$ billions)
8.2.4. Imports of goods and services, current prices (US$ billions)
8.2.5. Gross National Disposable Income
8.2.6. Manufacturing Output (US$ billions)
8.2.7. Consumer Price Index
8.2.8. Wholesale Price Index
8.2.9. Local Currency Unit per US$ (period average)
8.2.10. Local Currency Unit per EUR (period average)
8.2.11. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billions)
8.2.12. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP)
8.2.13. Total Government Cash Surplus/ Deficit (LCU Billion)
8.2.14. Government Cash Surplus/ Deficit as % of GDP (LCU)
8.2.15. Central Government Debt (LCU billion)
8.2.16. Central Government Debt as % of GDP (LCU billion)
8.2.17. Goods Exports as % of GDP
8.2.18. Goods Imports as % of GDP
8.2.19. Goods Balance as % of GDP
8.2.20. Services Imports as % of GDP
8.2.21. Services Exports as % of GDP
8.2.22. Services Balance as % of GDP
8.2.23. Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, current US$ Billions)
8.2.24. Net Foreign Direct Investment as % of GDP
8.2.25. International Reserves, including Gold (US$ Billions)
8.3. Energy and Utilities
8.3.1. Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation
8.3.2. Hydroelectricity Net Generation
8.3.3. Nuclear Electricity Net Generation
8.3.4. Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity
8.3.5. Total Electricity Exports (Billion Kilowatt Hours)
8.3.6. Total Electricity Imports (Billion Kilowatt Hours)
8.3.7. Total Petroleum Consumption
8.3.8. Total Non-Hydro Renewable Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatts)
8.4. Infrastructure Quality and Availability
8.4.1. Rail lines (total route), total network
8.4.2. Overall Construction
8.5. Minerals
8.5.1. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output
8.6. Technology
8.6.1. Patents granted
8.7. Telecommunication
8.7.1. Telephone Lines
8.7.2. Telephone Lines Penetration Rate

9 Appendix
9.1. About SDI
9.2. Disclaimer

List of Tables

Table 1: Swedish Defense Expenditure (US$ billion), 2010–2014
Table 2: Swedish Defense Expenditure (US$ billion), 2015–2019
Table 3: Swedish Defense Expenditure (SEK Billion), 2010–2014
Table 4: Swedish Defense Expenditure (SEK Billion), 2015–2019
Table 5: Swedish GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2010–2014
Table6: Swedish GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2015–2019
Table 7: Swedish Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%),  2010–2014
Table8: Swedish Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%),  2015–2019
Table 9: Swedish Defense Expenditure Breakdown (%), 2010–2014
Table 10: Swedish Defense Expenditure Breakdown (%), 2015–2019
Table 11: Swedish Defense Expenditure for the Air Force (US$ billion), 2010–2014
Table 12: Swedish Defense Expenditure for the Air Force (US$ billion), 2015–2019
Table 13: Swedish Defense Expenditure for the Air Force (SEK billion), 2010–2014
Table 14: Swedish Defense Expenditure for the Air Force (SEK billion), 2015–2019
Table 15: Swedish Defense Expenditure for the Army (US$ billion), 2010–2014
Table 16: Swedish Defense Expenditure for the Army (US$ billion), 2015–2019
Table 17: Swedish Defense Expenditure for the Army (SEK billion), 2010–2014
Table 18: Swedish Defense Expenditure for the Army (SEK billion), 2015–2019
Table 19: Swedish Defense Expenditure for the Navy (US$ billion), 2010–2014
Table 20: Swedish Defense Expenditure for the Navy (US$ billion), 2015–2019
Table 21: Swedish Defense Expenditure for the Navy (SEK billion), 2010–2014
Table 22: Swedish Defense Expenditure for the Navy (SEK billion), 2015–2019
Table 23: Swedish Defense Expenditure for Other Expenses (US$ billion), 2010–2014
Table 24: Swedish Defense Expenditure for Other Expenses (US$ billion), 2015–2019
Table 25: Swedish Defense Expenditure for Others (SEK billion), 2010–2014
Table 26: Swedish Defense Expenditure for the Others (SEK billion), 2015–2019
Table 27: Swedish Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Million), 2010–2014
Table 28: Swedish Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Million), 2015–2019
Table 29: Swedish Homeland Security Expenditure (SEK Billion), 2010–2014
Table 30: Swedish Homeland Security Expenditure (SEK Billion), 2015–2019
Table 31: Benchmarking with Key Markets, 2010–2014 vs. 2015–2019
Table 32: SDI Terrorism Index
Table 33: Top Country Ranking by Arms Exports,  2009–2013*
Table 34: Swedish Defense Budget Allocation, 2008–2012
Table 35: SAAB – Major Products and Services
Table 36: SAAB – Alliances
Table 37: SAAB – Recent Contract Wins
Table 38: BAE Systems AB – Major Products and Services
Table 39: BAE Systems AB – Alliances
Table 40: BAE Systems AB – Recent Contract Wins
Table 41: Nammo AS – Major Products and Services
Table 42: Nammo AS – Alliances
Table 43: CybAero – Main Products
Table 44: CybAero – Alliances
Table 45: CybAero – Recent Contract Wins
Table 46: Dynasafe AB – Main Products and Services
Table 47: Dynasafe AB – Recent Contract Wins
Table 48: Scanjack AB – Major Products and Services
Table 49: Scanjack AB – Recent Contract Wins
Table 50: Akers Krutbruk Protection AB – Major Products and Services
Table 51: Akers Krutbruk Protection AB – Alliances
Table 52: Akers Krutbruk Protection AB – Recent Contract Wins
Table 53: Logica – Major Products and Services
Table 54: Logica – Alliances
Table 55: Logica – Recent Contract Wins
Table 56: Niscayah – Major Products and Services
Table 57: Niscayah – Alliances
Table 58: Niscayah – Recent Contract Wins

List of Figures

Figure 1: Swedish Defense Expenditure (US$ billions), 2010–2014
Figure2: Swedish Defense Expenditure (US$ billion), 2015–2019
Figure 3: Swedish Defense Expenditure (SEK Billion), 2010–2014
Figure 4: Swedish Defense Expenditure (SEK Billion), 2015–2019
Figure 5: Swedish GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2010–2014
Figure 6: Swedish GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2015–2019
Figure 7: Swedish Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%),  2010–2014
Figure 8: Swedish Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%),  2015–2019
Figure 9: Swedish Defense Expenditure Breakdown (%), 2010–2014
Figure 10: Swedish Defense Expenditure Breakdown (%), 2015–2019
Figure 11: Swedish Defense Expenditure for the Air Force (US$ billion), 2010–2014
Figure 12: Swedish Defense Expenditure for the Air Force (US$ billion), 2015–2019
Figure 13: Swedish Defense Expenditure for the Air Force (SEK billion), 2010–2014
Figure 14: Swedish Defense Expenditure for the Air Force (SEK billion), 2015–2019
Figure 15: Swedish Defense Expenditure for the Army (US$ billion), 2010–2014
Figure 16: SwedishDefense Expenditure for the Army (US$ billion), 2015–2019
Figure 17: Swedish Defense Expenditure for the Army (SEK billion), 2010–2014
Figure 18: SwedishDefense Expenditure for the Army (SEK billion), 2015–2019
Figure 19: Swedish Defense Expenditure for the Navy (US$ billion), 2010–2014
Figure 20: Swedish Defense Expenditure for the Navy (US$ billion), 2015–2019
Figure 21: Swedish Defense Expenditure for the Navy (SEK billion), 2010–2014
Figure 22: Swedish Defense Expenditure for the Navy (SEK billion), 2015–2019
Figure 23: Swedish Defense Expenditure for Other Expenses (US$ billion), 2010–2014
Figure 24: Swedish Defense Expenditure for the Other Expenses (US$ billion), 2015–2019
Figure 25: Swedish Defense Expenditure for Others (SEK billion), 2010–2014
Figure 26: Swedish Defense Expenditure for Others (SEK billion), 2015–2019
Figure 27: Swedish Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Million), 2010–2014
Figure 28: Swedish Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Million), 2015–2019
Figure 29: Swedish Homeland Security Expenditure (SEK Billion), 2010–2014
Figure 30: Swedish Homeland Security Expenditure (SEK Billion), 2015–2019
Figure 31: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, 2014
Figure 32: SDI Terrorism Index, 2014
Figure 33: Benchmarking with Key Markets, 2010–2014 vs. 2015–2019
Figure 34: Benchmarking with World’s Largest Defense Spenders (US$ Billion),  2014 and 2019
Figure 35: Benchmarking with Large Defense Spenders as % of GDP – 2014
Figure 36: Fighters & Multi-Role Aircraft (US$ Million), 2014–2024
Figure 37: Diesel Electric Submarines Market Size (US$ Million), 2014–2024
Figure 38: Aviation MRO Market Size (US$ Million), 2014–2024
Figure 39: Network Security Market Size (US$ Million), 2014–2024
Figure 40: Swedish Defense Import Trend  (US$ Million), 2009–2013 (TIV values)
Figure 41: Swedish Defense Imports by Country (%), 2009–2013 (TIV values)
Figure 42: Swedish Defense Imports by Weapon Category (%), 2009–2013
Figure 43: Swedish Defense Export Trend  (US$ Million), 2009–2013 (TIV values)
Figure 44: Swedish Defense Export Trend by Country (%), 2009–2013 (TIV values)
Figure 45: Swedish Defense Export Trend by Weapon Category (%), 2009–2013 (TIV values)
Figure 46: Industry Dynamics – Porter’s Five Forces Analysis
Figure 47: SAAB – Revenue Trend Analysis (US$ Million), 2009–2013
Figure 48: SAAB – Operating Profit Trend Analysis (US$ million), 2009–2013
Figure 49: SAAB – Net Profit Trend Analysis (US$ million), 2009–2013
Figure 50: Swedish Rural Population (In Millions), 2009–2018
Figure 51: Swedish Urban Population (In Millions), 2009–2018
Figure 52: Swedish Number of Households (In Millions), 2008–2017
Figure 53: Swedish GDP Per Capita, 2008–2017
Figure 54: Swedish GDP at Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2008–2017
Figure 55: Swedish Exports of Goods and Services, Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2002-2011
Figure 56: Swedish Imports of Goods and Services, Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2002-2011
Figure 57: Swedish Gross National Disposable Income, 2002–2011
Figure 58: Sweden’s Manufacturing Output (US$ Billion), 2002-2011
Figure 59: Swedish Consumer Price Index, 2008–2017
Figure 60: Swedish Wholesale Price Index, 2002-2011
Figure 61: Local Currency Unit per US$, 2009–2018
Figure 62: Local Currency Unit per EUR, 2008–2017
Figure 63: Market Capitalization of Listed Companies in Sweden (US$ Billion), 2003–2012
Figure 64: Swedish Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP),  2002–2011
Figure 65: Swedish Government Cash Surplus/ Deficit (LCU Billion), 2002-2011
Figure 66: Swedish Government Cash Surplus/ Deficit as % of GDP (LCU), 2002-2011
Figure 67: Swedish Central Government Debt (LCU Billion)
Figure 68: Swedish Central Government Debt as % of GDP (LCU Billion)
Figure 69: Swedish Goods Exports as % of GDP, 2002–2011
Figure 70: Swedish Goods Imports as % of GDP, 2002–2011
Figure 71: Swedish Goods Balance as % of GDP, 2002–2011
Figure 72: Swedish Services Imports as % of GDP, 2002–2011
Figure 73: Swedish Services Exports as % of GDP, 2002–2011
Figure 74: Swedish Services Balance as % of GDP, 2002–2011
Figure 75: Swedish Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, current US$ Billion), 2002–2011
Figure 76: Swedish Net Foreign Direct Investment as % of GDP, 2002–2011
Figure 77: Swedish International Reserves, including Gold (US$ Billion), 2002–2011
Figure 78: Swedish Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt Hours), 2002–2011
Figure 79: Swedish Hydroelectricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt Hours), 2002–2011
Figure 80: Sweden’s Nuclear Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatts Hours), 2002–2011
Figure 81: Swedish Total Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Million Kilowatts), 2001–2010
Figure 82: Swedish Total Electricity Exports (Billion Kilowatt Hours), 2002–2011
Figure 83: Swedish Total Electricity Imports (Billion Kilowatt Hours), 2002–2011
Figure 84: Sweden’s Total Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels per Day), 2003–2012
Figure 85: Total Non-Hydro Renewable Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatts), 2002–2011
Figure 86: Rail Lines, Total Route (Km), 2002–2011
Figure 87: Overall Construction (US$ Million), 2007-2016
Figure 88: Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ Billion), 2002-2011
Figure 89: Patents Granted, 2003–2012
Figure 90: Telephone Lines in Sweden (in Millions), 2002–2011
Figure 91: Telephone Lines Penetration Rate in Sweden (per 100 people), 2002–2011

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