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Future of the Uzbek Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2019

Published: Dec-2014 | Format: PDF | Strategic Defence Intelligence | Number of pages: 100 | Code: MRS - 2387

The Future of the Uzbek Defense Industry – Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2019, published by Strategic Defense Intelligence, provides readers with a detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.


Key Findings

  • Over the historic period, Uzbek defense expenditure registered a growth rate of 11.65%, increasing from US$1.4 billion in 2010 to US$2.2 billion in 2014
  • Uzbekistan’s military expenditure, valued at US$2.4 billion in 2015, is expected to increase to US$3.4 billion by 2019, registering a CAGR of 9.48% over the forecast period
  • Uzbekistan’s military expenditure will be driven by the procurement of better defense systems and efforts to combat terrorist threats
  • The Defense Ministry is expected to procure military MRO to upgrade its existing

Synopsis


This report offers detailed analysis of Uzbekistan’s defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following: 

  • Uzbek defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Uzbek defense industry during 2015–2019, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns 
  • Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
  • Porter’s Five Force analysis of the Uzbek defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitutions, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry 
  • Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years 
  • Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the coming 10 years
  • Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Uzbek defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis


Reasons To Buy

  • This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Uzbek defense industry market trends for the coming five years
  • The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period
  • Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
  • A deep qualitative analysis of the Uzbek defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter’s Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts

Table of Contents


1 Introduction
1.1. What is this Report About?
1.2. Definitions
1.3. Summary Methodology
1.4. SDI Terrorism Index
1.5. About Strategic Defence Intelligence
 

2 Executive Summary

 

3 Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
3.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
3.1.1. Uzbek annual defense expenditure to reach US$3.4 billion by 2019
3.1.2. Modernization and acquisition of military equipment and counter-terrorism to drive Uzbekistan’s defense expenditure
3.1.3. The country’s defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to be 3.52% on average over the forecast period
3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
3.2.1. Share of capital expenditure to increase steadily over the forecast period
3.2.2. Capital expenditure budget expected to increase during the forecast period
3.2.3. Uzbek revenue expenditure expected to record a CAGR of 4.19% during the forecast period
3.2.4. Per capita defense expenditure expected to increase during the forecast period
3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
3.3.1. Homeland security budget projected to increase over the forecast period
3.3.2. Human trafficking, drug smuggling, and cybercrime form the major components of homeland security expenditure
3.3.3. Uzbekistan is at low risk from external and internal threats
3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
3.4.1. Uzbek defense expenditure expected to increase at a CAGR of 9.48% over the forecast period
3.4.2. Uzbekistan’s military expenditure is low when compared to countries with the largest defense expenditure
3.4.3. Uzbekistan allocates a high percentage of GDP to defense
3.4.4. Uzbekistan has a low per-capita defense expenditure
3.4.5. Uzbekistan faces low risk of terrorist attack
3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
 

4 Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
 

5 Industry Dynamics
5.1. Five Forces Analysis
5.1.1. Bargaining power of the supplier: medium to high
5.1.2. Bargaining power of the buyer: low to medium
5.1.3. Barrier to entry: medium
5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: medium
5.1.5. Threat of substitution: low to medium
 

6 Market Entry Strategy
6.1. Market Regulation
6.1.1. Uzbekistan does not disclose any offset obligations imposed by the country
6.1.2. Foreign direct investment (FDI)in defense sector not disclosed by the government
6.2. Market Entry Route
6.2.1. Government-to-government agreements are the preferred market entry route for foreign OEMs
6.2.2. Joint venture and license manufacturing agreements provide an attractive market entry route
6.3. Key Challenges
6.3.1. Corruption and lack of transparency create a roadblock for foreign companies
6.3.2. Domination of Russian companies poses a challenge to other foreign firms
 

7 Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview
7.1.1. Foreign suppliers manufacture defense systems overseas and deliver to Uzbekistan
7.2. Key Companies
7.2.1. Chkalov Tashkent Aircraft Production Corporation (TAPO): overview
7.2.2. TAPO: products and services
7.2.3. TAPO: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
7.2.4. TAPO: alliances
 

8 Business Environment and Country Risk
8.1. Demographics & Social Statistics
8.1.1. Total Rural Population
8.1.2. Total Urban Population
8.1.3. Number of households
8.2. Economic Performance
8.2.1. GDP Per Capita
8.2.2. GDP, Current Prices
8.2.3. Exports of goods and services (current US$Bn)
8.2.4. Imports of goods and services (current US$Bn)
8.2.5. Gross National disposable income (US$Bn)
8.2.6. Manufacturing Output (US$Bn)
8.2.7. Consumer Price Index
8.2.8. Wholesale Price Index
8.2.9. Local Currency Unit per US Dollars
8.2.10. Local Currency Unit per Euro
8.2.11. Market capitalization of listed companies (US$Bn)
8.2.12. Market capitalization of listed companies (% of GDP)
8.2.13. Total Government cash surplus/deficit (US$Bn)
8.2.14. Government cash surplus/deficit as % of GDP (US$)
8.2.15. Goods exports as a % of GDP
8.2.16. Goods imports as a % of GDP
8.2.17. Goods balance as a % of GDP
8.2.18. Services imports as a % of GDP
8.2.19. Service exports as a % of GDP
8.2.20. Services balance as a % of GDP
8.2.21. Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$ Bn)
8.2.22. Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP
8.2.23. International reserves, including gold
8.2.24. External Debt as % of GDP
8.3. Energy and Utilities
8.3.1. Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation
8.3.2. Hydroelectricity Net Generation
8.3.3. Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity
8.3.4. Electricity Exports
8.3.5. Electricity Imports
8.3.6. Proved Natural Gas Reserves
8.3.7. Petroleum Consumption
8.3.8. Crude Oil Proved Reserves
8.4. Infrastructure
8.4.1. Roads, total network (km)
8.4.2. Rail lines (total route-km)
8.4.3. Air Transport, freight (million ton-km)
8.5. Minerals
8.5.1. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output
8.6. Technology
8.6.1. Research and Development expenditure (Local Currency Thousands)
8.7. Telecommunication
8.7.1. Telephone Lines
8.7.2. Telephone Lines Penetration Rate
 

9 Appendix
9.1. About SDI
9.2. Disclaimer


List of Tables

 

Table 1: Uzbek Defense Expenditure (US$ billions), 2010–2014
Table 2: Uzbek Defense Expenditure, 2015–2019
Table 3: Uzbek Defense Expenditure (UZS billion), 2010–2014
Table 4: Uzbek Defense Expenditure (UZS billion), 2015–2019
Table 5: Uzbek GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth (US$), 2010–2014
Table 6: Uzbek GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth (US$), 2015–2019
Table 7: Uzbek GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth (in UZS), 2010–2014
Table 8: Uzbek GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth (UZS), 2015–2019
Table 9: Uzbek Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2010–2014
Table 10: Uzbek Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2015–2019
Table 11: Uzbek Capital Budget Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2010–2014
Table 12: Uzbek Capital Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2015–2019
Table 13: Uzbek Capital Budget Expenditure (UZS Billion), 2010–2014
Table 14: Uzbek Capital Budget Allocation (UZS billion), 2015–2019
Table 15: Uzbek Revenue Expenditure (US$ billion), 2010–2014
Table 16: Uzbek Revenue Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2015–2019
Table 17: Uzbek Revenue Budget Expenditure (UZS Billion), 2010–2014
Table 18: Uzbek Revenue Budget Allocation (UZS billion), 2015–2019
Table 19: Uzbek Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2010–2014
Table 20: Uzbek Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2015–2019
Table 21: Uzbek Per Capita Defense Expenditure (UZS thousand), 2010–2014
Table 22: Uzbek Per Capita Defense Expenditure (UZS thousand), 2015–2019
Table 23: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2010–2014 vs. 2015–2019
Table 24: SDI Terrorism Index
Table 25: TAPO– Product Focus
Table 26 TAPO- Alliances

 

List of Figures

 

Figure 1: Uzbek Defense Expenditure, 2010–2014
Figure 2: Uzbek Defense Expenditure, 2015–2019
Figure 3: Uzbek Defense Expenditure (UZS billion), 2010–2014
Figure 4: Uzbek Defense Expenditure (UZS billion), 2015–2019
Figure 5: Uzbek GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2010–2014
Figure 6: Uzbek GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2015–2019
Figure 7: Uzbek GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2010–2014
Figure 8: Uzbek GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2015–2019
Figure 9: Uzbek Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2010–2014
Figure 10: Uzbek Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2015–2019
Figure 11: Uzbek Capital Budget Expenditure (US$ billion),2010–2014
Figure 12: Uzbek Capital Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2015–2019
Figure 13: Uzbek Capital Budget Expenditure (UZS billion), 2010–2014
Figure 14: Uzbek Capital Budget Allocation (UZS billion), 2015–2019
Figure 15: Uzbek Revenue Expenditure (US$ billion), 2010–2014
Figure 16: Uzbek Revenue Budget Allocation (US$ billion), 2015–2019
Figure 17: Uzbek Revenue Budget Expenditure (UZS billion), 2010–2014
Figure 18: Uzbek Revenue Budget Allocation (UZS billion), 2015–2019
Figure 19: Uzbek Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2010–2014
Figure 20: Uzbek Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2015–2019
Figure 21: Uzbek Per Capita Defense Expenditure (UZS thousand), 2010–2014
Figure 22: Uzbek Per Capita Defense Expenditure (UZS thousand), 2015–2019
Figure 23: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, 2014
Figure 24: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2010–2014  vs. 2015–2019
Figure 25: Defense Expenditure of the World’s Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion),  2014 and 2019
Figure 26: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2014
Figure 27: Per-capita Defense Expenditure of Largest Military Spenders in the World (US$), 2014
Figure 28: SDI Terrorism Index, 2014
Figure 29: Industry Dynamics Porter’s Five Forces Analysis
Figure 30: Uzbek Rural Population (In Millions), 2010–2019
Figure 31: Uzbek Urban Population (In Millions), 2010–2019
Figure 32: Uzbek Number of Households (In Millions), 2008–2017
Figure 33: Uzbek GDP Per Capita (US$), 2010–2019
Figure 34: Uzbek GDP, Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2010–2019
Figure 35: UzbekExports of Goods and Services (current US$Bn), 2002–2011
Figure 36: UzbekImports of goods and services (current US$Bn), 2002–2011
Figure 37: Uzbek Gross National Disposable Income (US$Bn), 2002–2011
Figure 38: Uzbek Manufacturing Output (US$Bn), 2002–2011
Figure 39: Uzbek Consumer Price Index, 2010–2019
Figure 40: Wholesale Price Index, 2002–2011
Figure 41: Local Currency per US$, 2010–2019
Figure 42: Local Currency per Euro, 2010–2019
Figure 43: Uzbek Market capitalization of listed companies (US$Bn), 2003–2012
Figure 44: Uzbek Market capitalization of listed companies (% of GDP), 2002–2011
Figure 45: Uzbek Total Government cash surplus/deficit (US$Bn), 2002–2011
Figure 46: Uzbek Government cash surplus/deficit as % of GDP (US$), 2001–2010
Figure 47: Uzbek Goods exports as a % of GDP, 2002–2011
Figure 48: Uzbek Goods imports as a % of GDP, 2002–2011
Figure 49: Uzbek Goods balance as a % of GDP, 2001–2010
Figure 50: Uzbek Services Imports as a % of GDP, 2002–2011
Figure 51: Uzbek Service Exports as a % of GDP, 2001–2010
Figure 52: UzbekServicesBalance as a % of GDP, 2002–2011
Figure 53: Uzbek Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, current US$ Bn), 2002–2011
Figure 54: Uzbek Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP, 2002–2011
Figure 55: Uzbek International Reserves, Including Gold (US$ Billion), 2002–2011
Figure 56: Uzbek External Debt as % of GDP (%), 2001–2010
Figure 57: Uzbek Conventional Thermal Electricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2002–2011
Figure 58: Uzbek Hydroelectricity Net Generation (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2002–2011
Figure 59: Uzbek Conventional Thermal Electricity Installed Capacity (Million Kilowatts),    2001–2010
Figure 60: Uzbek Electricity Exports (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2001–2010
Figure 61: Uzbek Electricity Imports (Billion Kilowatt hours), 2001–2010
Figure 62: Uzbek Proved Natural Gas Reserves (Trillion Cubic Feet), 2004–2013
Figure 63: Uzbek Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day), 2003–2012
Figure 64: Uzbek Crude Oil Proved Reserves (Billion Barrels), 2004–2013
Figure 65: Uzbek Roads, total network (km), 2003–2010
Figure 66: UzbekRail lines (total route-km), 2002–2011
Figure 67: UzbekAir Transport, freight (million ton-km), 2002–2011
Figure 68: Uzbek Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ Billion), 2002–2011
Figure 69: UzbekResearch and Development expenditure (Local Currency Thousands), 2001–2010
Figure 70: Uzbek Telephone Lines (In Million), 2003–2012
Figure 71: Uzbek Telephone Lines Penetration Rate (Per 100 People), 2003–2012

 

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